Validation of the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Melanoma Using Molecular Markers (Melanoma-molGPA)

Carsten Nieder, Mandy Hintz, Angelika Bilger, Oliver Oehlke, Anca-Ligia Grosu


Background: It has been suggested to replace the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (DS-GPA, based on performance status and number of brain metastases) for patients with primary malignant melanoma with the new Melanoma-molGPA. The latter is a more complex assessment, which also includes BRAF mutation status, age and extracranial metastases. To test the performance of the Melanoma-molGPA, we performed a validation study of this new survival prediction tool.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients treated at two different academic institutions was performed. The four-tiered Melanoma-molGPA was calculated as suggested in the original study.

Results: Median overall survival was 5.4 months (95% confidence interval: 3.1 - 7.7 months). Median survival in the four prognostic classes was 2.1, 7.8, 11.8, and 18.0 months, respectively. The 1-year survival rates were 3%, 25%, 43%, and 80%, respectively. The difference between the Kaplan-Meier curves was significant (P = 0.0001, log-rank test).

Conclusions: The present survival outcomes support the use of the Melanoma-molGPA. However, survival was better in each of the four groups in the original study. Possible reasons include lead-time bias and different treatment policies.

J Clin Med Res. 2018;10(3):178-181



Brain metastases; Melanoma; Radiotherapy; Radiosurgery; Prognostic score

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